China is facing four major traps, including two internal traps and two external traps. The two internal traps are the "middle-income trap" and the "Tacitus trap", while the two external traps are the "Goldberg Trap" and the "Thucydides Trap". History has proved that the internal and external traps are interrelated and mutually reinforcing. Not only do the middle-income trap and the Tacitus trap will affect and reinforce each other, but the deterioration of the external environment will also lead to a worsened middle-income trap. It should be emphasized that China must not fall into the four traps at the same time.
Has China already fallen into these traps? There are different opinions on this question. If we have already fallen into the trap, then we need to analyze reason behind the rising phenomena; if not, or are on the edge of traps, then we need to think about how to avoid falling into these traps. From either perspective, these are things that need to be avoided with the greatest effort. Without those efforts, the domestic modernization process will face great difficulties.
Sources from: The Economist Magazine
【Dynamic 2】How to avoid the "Tacitus Trap”
Tacitus Trap is a political theory named after the ancient Roman historian Tacitus. The term refers to the phenomenon that if public power loses its credibility, society will give it a negative evaluation no matter how the public power makes a statement or conducts itself. Recently, the Tacitus trap has become a worldwide crisis, and the overall trust of Chinese society is also declining. China is also facing the challenge of building a trust-worthy credit system. It is necessary to build a social environment with a high social trust system.
How to build social trust? We can analyze the issue from at least three aspects as follows. First, China should continue to promote material modernization with economic development at its core. Development is the basis to circumvent the Tacitus trap. Although there are many factors that lead to the Tacitus trap, development is the outline to reshape and strengthen the foundation of social trust. Social trust is the social capital of economic development, while economic development can enhance social trust, thus realizing a virtuous cycle between the two. Secondly, the system should be modernized. Social credit should be guaranteed by the system, and the credit on paper should be transformed into social trust, while the government is the main body to shape the system. Third, to achieve the modernization of people. Our material modernization no longer lags behind any other country, and the system modernization is catching up. However, the modernization of people, especially at the spiritual level, is often neglected. In short, it would be more meaningful to bring the construction of the social credit system into the perspective of Chinese-style modernization.
Sources from: Network
【Dynamic 3】How China Responds and Cracks the United Front of U.S.-European Policy Towards China
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the mutual coordination and cooperation between the U.S. and Europe in foreign policy have become more and more prominent: on the one hand, Europe has taken the initiative to seek protection from the U.S. because of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on its own security and economy; on the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war has brought a political and economic crisis to Europe, and the U.S. has taken advantage of it to encourage and coerce Europe to form a united front with the U.S. in international affairs.
It is foreseeable that the U.S.-European cooperation will be further reinforced. A strengthened U.S.-European military alliance will consolidate the dominant position of the U.S. in European affairs, and lead to an increasingly obvious trend of NATOization in Europe, amidst the fear of potential threats from Russia. After the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, NATO is more likely to become one of the most effective tools for the U.S. to continue its global domination.
China should fully understand the inevitability of the convergence of U.S. and European policies toward China so that it can actively respond to it and see how to deal with it. At the same time, China also needs to identify the fundamental differences between the interests of the U.S. and Europe on the issue of China, so as to find a policy breakthrough and avoid falling into the siege created by the Western world against the rise of China.
Sources from： Getty Images
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