Abstract

On October 12, 2022, the White House issued the latest version of the National Security Strategy (2022 NSS), which seeks to explain to the international community, the future positioning, and outlook of US foreign policy, especially towards China. In addition, the US chose to release the new version on the eve of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to convey certain messages to the Chinese side.

Considering the 2022 NSS and the broader trends of Washington's China policy, this report provides an outlook on US-China relations after the 20th CPC National Congress. We believe that in the short term, Washington’s China strategy will be moderated to some extent. The United States has suffered losses in three strategic regions – the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific – as well as an international public goods crisis. As a result, the Biden administration no longer has the sufficient strategic resources that it once did in order to maintain an intense confrontation with China over Taiwan. Accordingly, we suggest that China can seize this window of opportunity between the release of the 2022 NSS and the 20th Communist Party Congress, to adjust its diplomatic strategy in five major areas, including US-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Taiwan issue, the South China Sea issue and global governance.