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IIA's Policy Report
[Policy Report 113] Yuan Randong: The influence, lessons and suggestions of our country that America and West prohibit Russia's use of SWIFT clearing system
Authored on：2022-03-03
Keywords
International Settlement
Chinese Diplomacy
SWIFT System
Abstract
The US won’t likely to punish China in the same way it did Russia anytime soon doesn't mean it doesn't have plans. Since Trump, China has been regarded by the US as its main competitor, and even enemy. In recent years, the US has been trying to move the industrial chain out of China to other countries, such as Vietnam, where the US is more able to influence or control, so as to gradually decouple China and the US economically. At that time, the Obama administration wanted to pursue the TPP, and decoupling from China and isolating China economically was the strategic consideration behind it. If such efforts of the United States are effective, when the economic and trade overlap between China and the United States decreases to a certain extent, it will be a realistic or even inevitable choice for the United States to kick China out of the SWIFT system.
Specifically, we need to do the following things. First, to further improve the level of productivity and promote industrial upgrading, so as to make made-in-China products more competitive and reduce China's dependence on foreign high-tech products. Second, we should unswervingly promote high-level opening-up, especially in the financial sector, so as to bring more foreign investment into China and further integrate China into the world economy, so that China will always be "too big to fail and too connected to fail". Third, accelerate the development of China-led international settlement systems, including CIPS, to bring more and more important trading partners on board and reduce reliance on dollar settlement. Fourth, we should be cautious in our diplomacy. We should neither go all the way to Russia or take sides. Instead, we should safeguard our actual national interests in a pragmatic manner, so that all countries in the world will realize that China's peace, stability and development are in their interests and that economic and trade cooperation with China is mutually beneficial. Fifth, we need to strengthen reserves and self-sufficiency in energy, key commodities and agricultural products. Finally, we need to enhance our military capabilities and build more deterrence strategic forces.
Research Questions
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The impact of America and the West's prohibition of Russia's SWIFT system on our country
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How can China learn from Russia's SWIFT system ban
