Abstract

Mid-term elections are congressional elections and state executive and legislative elections held two years after the US presidential election. All seats in the US House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate in mid-term elections are reelected. Currently, the US Democratic Party controls both the Senate and the House of Representatives with very slight majorities, which benefits the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden. If the Democrats lose one or both houses in the November mid-term elections, the Republicans could block President Biden from carrying out his policies and executive plans. The US mid-term elections will have a significant impact on China. It is foreseeable that China's issues will inevitably be used to influence the election in the midterm elections; the changes in US political power after the elections will also profoundly affect Sino-American relationships. This report analyses the domestic and international factors affecting the US mid-term elections, combining traditional analysis and big data methods to predict the outcome of the mid-term elections, analyzing the short-term and long-term implications of the mid-term elections on China, and discussing China's response.