Abstract

Attracting global attention, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives,  Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced her intention to visit Taiwan in August on July 19, 2022. Pelosi is currently the third most influential politician in the United States. She will be the first Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to visit Taiwan in 25 years if all goes according to plan. How should we comprehend the impact of Pelosi's Taiwan visit on U.S.-China relations? And how should China retaliate and respond? We believe Taiwan is central to China’s core national interests, and we must respond to Taiwan in a strong, positive, and measured manner. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan aims to both ease the current midterm electoral pressure on the Biden administration and maintain strategic confidence among the United States' Asia-Pacific allies. Given that the Biden administration was unable to pass the climate bill, it must make additional "political gains" in foreign policy in order to survive the midterm elections in November 2022. Faced with inflationary pressures, an energy crisis, and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the United States must demonstrate to its Asia-Pacific allies its concern and commitment to the region. 

In order to respond to and counter Pelosi's announced trip to Taiwan, we believe China must grasp three key points. (1) We must apply extreme pressure on the Taiwan authorities to demonstrate China's resolve to maintain territorial sovereignty at all costs; (2) We must divide the U.S. ruling class and the U.S. public on this issue by explaining to the American public that the Biden administration is creating conflict over Taiwan to cover up its ineffective management of U.S. domestic affairs; and (3) We must create divisions between the Taiwanese  authorities and the United States by explaining to the Taiwanese side that the U.S.’ ultimate strategic objective is to wage proxy wars and transform Taiwan into a war-torn quagmire similar to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The impossibility of the United States to fulfil its security pledge to Taiwan needs to be stressed.