Abstract

On 8 November 2022, the US Midterm Elections took place as scheduled. The voters will decide all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. While the final tally has yet to be seen, the two-party power distribution is clear: Democrats held enough Senate seats to retain their majority while Republicans claimed the House. This implies that the Biden Administration’s hold over US foreign policy will be more diffused; US diplomacy will be more inward-looking, party-oriented, and politician-oriented than ever. This is not a favorable situation for China: with more global setbacks, the hard-liners and anti-Chinese groups will firm up their hawkish agenda, becoming more irrational; the more the Sino-US relationship deteriorates, the fewer international public goods there will be. This will cause long-term downward pressure on China’s sustainable development. China's diplomacy towards the US in 2023-2024 will determine the direction of the US foreign policy. China should maintain strategic restraint and patience and develop a more refined diplomatic strategy towards the US to deflect the influence of the US hard-liners and anti-China groups. At the same time, China and the US should develop a modicum of cooperation to stabilize the international environment, providing buffers for China's sustainable development and modernization.