【Policy Report No. 184】Zheng Yongnian, Yang Xiangfeng: The possibility of North Korea's Nuclear Test and China's Countermeasures
Authored on:2022-10-23
Keywords Korean Peninsula situation nuclear test extension deterrence

Abstract

Judging from the current situation, it is only a matter of time before the DPRK conducts its 7th nuclear test. With the adjustment of the DPRK's nuclear strategy and the strengthening of the US’ use of “extended deterrence”, the risk of a nuclear conflict on the Korean Peninsula has significantly increased. In this regard, on the one hand, we should stay strategically focused, taking a wait-and-see approach; and avoid making enemies with either side on the Peninsula. On the other hand, we should focus on the great power game between China and the US. While focusing on China's core interests, in which Taiwan is crucial, we should also keep a close watch on the Korean Peninsula, and ensure that there are actions taken and that there are actions that are not taken.

Research Questions

  • North Korea's strategy to develop nuclear weapons
  • US and South Korean deterrence against North Korea
  • China's response to the status quo of the Korean Peninsula